Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 0.121891 0.134406 0.147214 0.161274 0.176247 0.191689 0.208791
2024-12-22 0.096395 0.114560 0.134087 0.156519 0.181451 0.208194 0.238926
2024-12-29 0.083729 0.106179 0.131344 0.161344 0.195835 0.233960 0.278995
2025-01-05 0.073526 0.098924 0.128478 0.164862 0.207902 0.256666 0.315557
2025-01-12 0.064905 0.092296 0.125286 0.167086 0.217775 0.276432 0.348596
2025-01-19 0.057231 0.085851 0.121465 0.167806 0.225280 0.293047 0.377782
2025-01-26 0.055508 0.086686 0.126434 0.179163 0.245620 0.325017 0.425415
2025-02-02 0.050462 0.082548 0.124600 0.181601 0.254720 0.343332 0.456742
2025-02-09 0.046555 0.079541 0.123888 0.185190 0.265069 0.363099 0.489889
2025-02-16 0.041816 0.074886 0.120573 0.185031 0.270395 0.376506 0.515209
2025-02-23 0.040764 0.075466 0.124325 0.194231 0.287829 0.405176 0.559648
2025-03-02 0.039310 0.075272 0.126882 0.201759 0.303098 0.431215 0.601017
2025-03-09 0.035484 0.071290 0.124075 0.202144 0.309367 0.446461 0.629828
2025-03-16 0.030791 0.065512 0.118336 0.198212 0.309757 0.454191 0.649342
2025-03-23 0.029232 0.064723 0.119898 0.204579 0.324147 0.480257 0.692581
2025-03-30 0.027332 0.063165 0.120162 0.209010 0.335899 0.502982 0.731759
2025-04-06 0.025219 0.061014 0.119344 0.211748 0.345268 0.522607 0.767083
2025-04-13 0.022913 0.058266 0.117385 0.212644 0.351972 0.538682 0.797870
2025-04-20 0.023337 0.060635 0.123699 0.226046 0.376505 0.578878 0.860618
2025-04-27 0.021667 0.058834 0.123105 0.228922 0.386065 0.598985 0.897094
2025-05-04 0.020381 0.057648 0.123429 0.233142 0.397550 0.621763 0.937257
2025-05-11 0.018441 0.054927 0.120995 0.232957 0.402587 0.635743 0.965792
2025-05-18 0.018453 0.056269 0.125537 0.243752 0.423725 0.671946 1.024241